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U.S. and Many Foreign Markets are Closed Today in Observance of Good Friday #GoodFriday #HousingStarts

U.S. and many foreign markets are closed today in observance of Good Friday. Despite markets being closed today, there was some economic data released this morning. March housing starts and permits both fell for the month, while markets were looking for an advance higher. Both single-family and multi-family starts dropped for the month and February’s starts were revised even lower than the originally reported weakness. European markets are closed today, while Japanese shares led gains of the few Asian markets that were open.

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16 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher After Data #RetailSales #Jobless #PMI

U.S. futures are higher after data. Stock futures gained traction after March retail sales were reported much stronger than expected. Retails sales rose 1.6% for the month with the control group rising 1%, both double expectations. Weekly jobless claims were also better than expected, falling 5k last week to 192k. Lastly, the April Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey was reported slightly below estimates at 8.5. Later this morning Attorney General William Barr will hold a press conference before releasing a redacted version of the Mueller report. The release of the report will give lawmakers a more detailed look than originally provided by Barr last month. European shares are mixed after disappointing PMI data from France and Germany. The recent PMI data has investors worried that the euro area may be slowing further. Asian shares closed mostly lower with Japanese shares lagging the region.

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14 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher on Earnings and Trade Data #Earnings #TradeDeficit #BeigeBook

U.S. futures are higher on earnings and trade data. Stronger earnings from Morgan Stanley, Pepsico and Netflix have helped boost stocks. On the data front, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit fell again in February after the sharp decline in January. The deficit fell to 49.4B, well below estimates of 53.6B, as the goods deficit with China fell substantially in February. Later today, the market will get a look at anecdotal evidence of the economy form the 12 Fed districts when the Beige Book is released. European shares are mixed with material stocks lagging. Asian shares closed mixed despite stronger than expected GDP numbers out of China.

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15 Hits

Strong Earnings Have U.S. Futures Rising #Futures #Earnings #DAX

Strong earnings have U.S. futures rising pre-market. Strong earnings from United Health, Black Rock and Johnson & Johnson has helped boost stocks this morning. Markets will have economic data to digest with March industrial production and the April housing market index due out later this morning. European shares are broadly higher, led by the German DAX, after data showed that investor sentiment rose more than expected in April. Asian shares closed higher with Chinese shares leading the region as average new home prices rose faster than expected in March.

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20 Hits

U.S. Futures are Hovering Near Unchanged as Markets Digest Earnings Reports #Futures #Earnings #Manufacturing

U.S. futures are hovering near unchanged as markets digest earnings reports. Mixed reports from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup has markets searching for direction as both companies reported stronger earnings on weaker revenue. In a CNBC interview, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he would be comfortable leaving rates unchanged into the fall of 2020 to allow for inflation to be sustainable. On the data front, the Empire State Manufacturing survey came in stronger than expected in April, rising to 10.1, well ahead of expectations of 6.8. European shares are mostly higher on corporate earnings reports. Asian shares closed mixed on Monday with Japanese shares outperforming the region.

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26 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise on Strong Earnings and Deal News #Futures #Earnings #Chevron

U.S. futures rise on strong earnings and deal news. The energy sector got a boost after Chevron agreed to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in a $33B deal, while financials are getting a lift after stronger-than-expected quarterly results out of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and PNC. On the data front, import and export prices were both higher than expected in March, with import prices rising 0.6% and export prices rising 0.7%. European shares are trading higher as euro zone industrial output fell less than expected in February and global optimism rises. Asian shares closed mostly higher as the U.S. and China continue to work out sticking points toward a trade deal.

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27 Hits

U.S. Futures are Slightly Higher After Data #Jobless #PPI #Inflation

U.S. futures are slightly higher after data. Strength in the job market continues as weekly jobless claims fell to a near 50-year low at 196k last week. On the inflation front, producer prices rose more than expected in March, rising 0.6% m/m and 2.2% y/y. Ex-food and energy, producer prices rose 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. European shares are mostly higher one day after the ECB left rates unchanged. On the Brexit front, the EU granted British PM Theresa May an extension on the proposed exit until October 31st. This extension will give the PM over six months to get an agreement as to what Brexit should look like. Asian markets closed mixed on Thursday. Data out of China showed that consumer prices rose more than expected in March as food price inflation was higher than expected.

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23 Hits

U.S. Futures are Slightly Higher After Inflation Data #CPI #FOMC #ECB

U.S. futures are slightly higher after inflation data. Consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in March, rising 0.4% m/m and 1.9% y/y. Ex-food and energy, prices rose slightly less than expected, rising 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. Later today markets will get a look at FOMC meeting minutes from the March meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking about the economy later today at the House of Representatives Democratic Caucus annual retreat in Virginia. European shares are trading higher after the ECB left rates unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that rates will likely remain unchanged at least through the end of 2019 and they would continue to reinvest maturing debt for an extended period after rate hikes begin. Asian shares closed mixed after the IMF reduced their outlook for global economic growth in 2019 from 3.5% to 3.3%.

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30 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Trade Tensions Rise #Tariffs #EU #Earnings #JOLTS

U.S. futures are lower as trade tensions rise. President Trump is proposing new tariffs on imports from the EU as a retaliation for the economic damage to the U.S. created by Airbus subsidies. The U.S. is considering placing tariffs on up to $11B of EU goods. On the earnings front, Q1 earnings will kick into gear on Friday as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will be the first large banks to report. Ahead of bank earnings, Bank of America has announced that they will raise their minimum wage to $20/hour over the next two years. Later this morning, markets will get a look at job openings in February when the latest JOLTS report comes out at 10am. European shares are moving lower after starting the session higher as investors weigh the impact of potential tariffs. Asian shares closed mostly higher, but lack of conviction kept gains small across the region.

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29 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise on Strong Jobs Data #JobsReport #Inflation #Unemployment

U.S. Futures rise on strong jobs data. The latest employment report showed that the economy added 196k jobs in March, with February’s weak jobs number getting revised higher by 13k. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings rose slightly less than expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in March at 3.8%. The employment numbers are being cheered by markets as it should keep the Fed on hold for now. European shares are rising after U.S. data with basic material stocks leading. British PM Theresa May has asked the EU for a Brexit deadline extension until June 30th so they can try to come to an exit agreement with opposition leaders. Asian shares closed mostly higher, however, Chinese markets were closed on holiday. Data out of Japan showed that household spending rose less than expected in February, rising 1.7%

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162 Hits

U.S. Futures are Flat as Markets Await Trade Developments #TradeTalks #Jobless #Brexit

U.S. futures are flat as markets await trade developments. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House later today to discuss trade progress. Progress on core issues could allow the scheduling of a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for a signing ceremony. On the data front, strength in the labor market continues as the Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell 10k last week to 202k. European stocks are mostly lower, with basic material stocks giving back most of yesterday’s gains. On Brexit news, a majority vote passed yesterday to block a no-deal Brexit, forcing Prime Minister Theresa May to seek an extension if no deal is agreed upon by the April 12 deadline. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares outperforming the region.

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51 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise as Trade Progress Continues #TradeTalks #ADP #Brexit

U.S. futures rise as trade progress continues. The U.S. and China have reportedly resolved many of the sticking points and are moving closer to a trade deal. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is in the U.S. meeting with trade representatives and will resume talks again later today. On the data front, private payrolls were lower than expected in March, rising by 129k. The weaker than expected number was partially offset by a 14k revision higher for February’s private payroll gains. Later this morning markets will get a look at the services sector with the release of the ISM non-manufacturing index from March. European shares are higher with material stocks leading on positive U.S./China trade developments. On the Brexit front, it is likely that U.K. PM Theresa May will request an extension to get a majority on an exit plan as the April 12th deadline approaches. Asian shares closed higher with Chinese shares leading the region.

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189 Hits

US Treasury Floaters – A Contrarian Opportunity for Cash

April 2nd, 2019

Fed induced selloffs are exciting times for bond pickers, as credit spreads tend to widen out while treasury rates move higher. This was the case in October 2018. Interest rates increased while spreads on many bond types began moving to their widest levels since 2016. The opportunity was short lived though, as the fed changed its message and fostered sharp bond appreciation from the 2018 lows. As a result, many investors are currently struggling to locate value in today’s market. While yields on most bonds are indeed lower, we feel a unique bond type is presenting relative value; US Treasury Floating Rate Notes.

These securities have cheapened in 2019 while the market moved to price in future interest rate cuts. Currently, market implied odds of one or more rate cuts by January of next year sit at 63.4% (CME Group FedWatch Tool). On the surface, it doesn’t seem sensible to own floating rate bonds if rate hikes aren’t on the horizon. We take a different view and believe these bonds are an interesting opportunity for the following reasons.
 

  • Yield – The 1/31/21 US Treasury Floater outyields all treasuries out to 11 years. With a current coupon of 2.528% (it pays the 3 Month T Bill rate + 0.115%) and a price of 99.95, these notes offer YTM of 2.555% given the current T-Bill rate. While the coupon can indeed change, the notes currently provide a 25 basis point yield advantage over two-year fixed rate treasuries and a 14.5 bp yield advantage over three-month bills.
     
  • Rate Outlook – While the fed appears likely to be on hold for a while, we see an unchanged fed funds rate as a possible outcome. In this scenario, we project the floating notes to outperform. Further, albeit less likely, we see future interest rate hikes as a possible scenario. In this case we feel the floaters will also outperform.
     
  • Historical Value – Since the treasury started selling floaters in 2014, buyers had to sacrifice yield. One example; when issued on 1/31/18, the US treasury two-year floaters offered 1.506% yield given the three-month bill rate at the time. This was 63.4 bps less than two-year fixed rate treasuries. Investors paid up for these due to the rate protection they offered. Today, these securities offer the same rate protection at a much better price point.

 

Matt DeLorenzo, Fixed Income Strategist

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161 Hits

U.S. Futures are Relatively Unchanged After Data #Futures #DurableGoods #AutoSales

U.S. futures are relatively unchanged after data. New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% in February, slightly better than the 1.8% decline expected by analysts. After stripping out transportation, orders rose 0.1% for the month. Later this morning markets will get a look at motor vehicle sales from March, with analysts expecting a slight rise from February. European shares are trading higher as financial stocks gain. Asian shares closed mostly higher, but off the highs of the day. Japanese shares lagged the region with shares falling slightly during the session.

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43 Hits

U.S. Futures are Holding Gains Despite a Weaker Retail Sales Report #Futures #RetailSales #PMI

U.S. futures are holding gains despite a weaker retail sales report. Optimism overseas improved sentiment this morning after China reported strong manufacturing data. On the U.S. data front, February retail sales fell 0.2%, while analysts were looking for a 0.3% gain. Retail sales ex-auto and gas fell 0.6%, with analysts expecting a 0.4% gain. Markets will get a look at additional data later this morning with the release of March PMI manufacturing index and the ISM manufacturing index, as well as business inventories from January and construction spending from February. European shares are higher, with material stocks leading, after strong data out of China gave that sector a boost. Asian markets closed broadly higher with Chinese stocks leading after PMI data out of China showed expansion in March.

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44 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as the Strong 1st Quarter Comes to a Close #PersonalIncome #Inflation #PCE

U.S. futures are higher as the strong 1st quarter comes to a close. The S&P 500 has risen over 12% this quarter, one of the strongest quarters since the current cycle began. Stocks have held gains this morning after mixed economic data. Personal income in February rose slightly less than anticipated, rising 0.2%. Consumer spending and inflation were both below expectations in January, as spending and the core PCE both rose 0.1%. Later this morning markets will get a look at business conditions in Chicago from March, February new home sales and a final read on consumer sentiment from March. European shares are higher with materials stocks leading the gains. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will put forward her last attempt to get a majority vote from Parliament for her Brexit deal that has already been rejected twice. China led Asian markets higher on renewed trade optimism following U.S./Chinese meetings in Beijing. Chinese officials have reportedly offered some concessions on previous sticking points.

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63 Hits

U.S. Futures are Mixed After Data #GDP #Jobless #Brexit

U.S. futures are mixed after data. U.S. stock futures are relatively unchanged after the final read of Q4 GDP and weekly jobless claims. The final read on Q4 GDP was reported at 2.2%, down from the last look of 2.6%, but in line with expectations. Weekly jobless claims fell by 5k to 211k, with analysts expecting a slight rise to 225k. Europeans shares are slightly higher with most sectors trading in positive territory. Brexit talks failed to make progress yesterday after none of the proposals put forward for vote achieved majority support. Asian shares closed mixed as the markets await developments from U.S./China trade talks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lagged in the region, falling in excess of 1.5%.

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58 Hits

U.S. Futures Improve After Trade Data #Deficit #Oil #Brexit

U.S. futures improve after trade data. The January trade deficit fell sharply to $51.1B, after a sharp rise in December. Analysts were expecting the January deficit to be in the area of $57.3B. Later this morning the market will get a look at oil and gas inventories from last week. European shares are trying to turn positive despite Brexit uncertainty. Later today lawmakers will attempt to get an indication of what the next course of Brexit should look like as they vote on several proposals. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares leading the region as the U.S. and China are set to resume talks on a trade deal tomorrow in Beijing.

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54 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Global Stocks Gain #Futures #HousingStarts #ConsumerConfidence

U.S. futures are higher as global stocks gain. U.S. futures are holding on to gains after data as markets across the globe rise. February housing starts declined more than expected, falling at an 8.6% annualized rate. Housing permits were about in line with forecasts, falling 1.6%. Later this morning markets will get a look at house prices from January and consumer confidence from March. European shares are higher with energy stocks leading the gains. Asian markets closed higher with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading the gains after lagging on Monday. Mainland Chinese shares lagged the region closing lower by more than 1%.

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223 Hits

U.S. Futures are Slightly Lower as Markets Weigh Global Growth and Mueller Report #Futures #YieldCurve #MuellerReport

U.S. futures are slightly lower as markets weigh global growth and Mueller report. Stocks fell on Friday as investors focused on the inverting yield curve and what that could mean for the economy. Over the weekend, Attorney General William Barr issued a statement that the Mueller investigation failed to prove that candidate Trump or his campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election. With the conclusion of the investigation, markets are hoping the President can move forward with focusing on policy issues like a China trade deal or a new infrastructure plan. European shares are lower with most sectors trading lower. Asian shares closed sharply lower, with Japan’s Nikkei losing 3%, as markets fear a global economic slowdown.

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52 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After Yesterday’s Rally #Manufacturing #HomeSales #Brexit

U.S. futures are lower after yesterday’s rally. Markets rose around 1% yesterday after digesting the Fed’s latest commentary. Markets are pausing today after weak manufacturing numbers out of Germany have markets worried about global growth. On the data front, later this morning markets will get a look at existing home sales from February. European shares are lower as euro zone PMI below expectations in March along with Germany’s manufacturing sector contracting for three months straight. On the Brexit front, EU leaders have given PM Theresa May until April 12 to get lawmakers to agree to her deal or she seek a longer extension. Asian shares closed slightly higher, but no conviction in either direction as markets wait for trade developments.

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57 Hits

US Futures are Lower After Investors Weigh Chairman Powell’s Comments #InterestRates #FOMC #Dovish

US futures are lower this morning as investors are weighing the Fed’s monetary policy and Chairman Powell’s comments. The Fed announced they are forecasting no more rate hikes in 2019 and they will be putting an end to their tightening cycle by September. While this is dovish, these moves from the Fed drive worries about the overall economy. European markets are trading mostly lower with banks leading the way lower. Markets in Asia closed mostly higher as investors there welcomed the dovish moves from the Fed.

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59 Hits

U.S. Futures are Searching for Direction Ahead of the Fed Decision #FOMC #TradeTalks #Brexit

U.S. futures are searching for direction ahead of the Fed decision. U.S. futures are flat ahead of the 2pm FOMC announcement and press conference to follow. Trade is making headlines again this morning as concerns rise that China will walk-back certain concessions without certainty about the removal of U.S. tariffs. Later this morning, markets will get a look at oil and gas inventories from last week, but no economic data slated for release today. European shares are mostly lower, with most sectors trading lower. In Brexit news, tomorrow PM Theresa May will ask the EU to for a short delay of Brexit, in attempt to get an agreement done prior. Asian shares closed mostly lower, however, off the session lows. U.S./China trade headlines weighed on the region.

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69 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as the FOMC Two Day Policy Meeting Kicks Off #Futures #FOMC #FederalReserve

U.S. futures are higher as the FOMC two-day policy meeting kicks off. While the market is pricing in zero expectation of a rate hike tomorrow, markets will look to changes in the “dot plots” for signs of the Fed easing off the gas pedal. On the data front, later this morning markets will get a look at factory orders from January, with expectations of no change from December. European shares are higher with automobile stocks leading higher as Fiat Chrysler becomes the talk of a possible takeover. Asian shares closed mixed with a lack of conviction in either direction.

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58 Hits

U.S. Futures are Mixed to Start the Week Ahead of the FOMC Meeting #Futures #FOMC #HousingMarket

U.S. futures are mixed to start the week ahead of the FOMC meeting. The two-day Fed meeting will begin tomorrow with a policy decision expected on Wednesday. The markets are not expecting a change in policy in the current meeting, however, markets will be looking at the Fed’s commentary for signs of future policy decisions. On the data front, later this morning the market will get a look at the March housing market index, expecting a slight rise from 62 to 63. European stocks are mostly higher with bank stocks leading. Asian shares closed mostly higher with Chinese shares leading on reported trade progress with the U.S.

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62 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher to Close Out a Strong Week for Stocks #JobsReport #Manufacturing #Brexit

U.S. futures are higher to close-out a strong week for stocks. Stocks are looking to hold on to early week gains as the S&P has risen nearly 3% this week. On the data front, the March Empire Manufacturing survey came in weaker than expected falling to 3.7, against expectations of 10. Later this morning, markets will get a look at February industrial production, consumer sentiment from February and the January JOLTs report. European shares are higher as U.K. lawmakers vote to delay Brexit to June 30th provided a Brexit deal is approved by March 20th. Asian markets closed mostly higher after the BOJ held rates unchanged as inflation remains tame.

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75 Hits

U.S. Futures Have Pared Gains After Trade Headlines #TradeTalks #China #Brexit

U.S. futures have pared gains after trade headlines. Reports that a potential meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushed back to at least April has caused stock futures to reverse gains, now trading near unchanged. On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose by 6k to 229k, roughly in line with estimates. Import and export prices both rose more than expected in February, rising 0.6% each. Later this morning the market will get a look at new home sales from January. European shares are higher with most sectors trading higher. Yesterday U.K. lawmakers voted down the idea of leaving the EU without a deal in place. Today lawmakers will vote on whether or not to extend the Brexit deadline. Asian shares closed mixed as Chinese stocks underperformed after weak industrial production data.

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68 Hits

U.S. Futures are Holding Gains After Data #DurableGoods #Inflation #Brexit

U.S. futures are holding gains after data. January new orders for durable goods rose more than expected, rising 0.4% against expectations of a slight decline. On the inflation front, producer prices in February were slightly below expectations rising 0.1%, below expectations of a rise of 0.2%. Later this morning markets will get a look at construction spending from January. European stocks are mostly higher despite uncertainty around Brexit after lawmakers once again voted down PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The U.K. Parliament will vote tomorrow to exit without a deal. If this measure is turned down, they will then vote again on Thursday to delay Brexit. Asian shares closed mostly lower with weakness in Chinese and Japanese shares.

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73 Hits

U.S. Futures Gain as Inflation Figures Match Expectations #CPI #Boeing #Brexit

U.S. futures gain on in-line inflation figures. U.S. stocks rose pre-market after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February CPI data that matched analysts’ estimates. The consumer price index rose 0.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y, while core CPI was slightly below expectations. Boeing shares were again weighing on the Dow as additional countries suspend service and analysts re-evaluate the company. European shares are mixed ahead of an important Brexit vote later today. Parliament will vote today on whether to accept or reject British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Asian shares closed higher with Japanese shares leading the gains.

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393 Hits

U.S. Futures are Mixed as Boeing Weighs on the Dow #Futures #Boeing #RetailSales

U.S. futures are mixed as Boeing weighs on the Dow. Following the second crash of a Boeing 737 Max jet in 6 months, several countries have grounded their fleet of these airplanes which has sent Boeing shares down around 10%. The Dow’s price weighted index is losing over 200 points from the impact of Boeing alone, while the S&P and Nasdaq futures are both higher. On the data front, January retail sales were better-than-expected in all categories, with the headline number rising 0.2% after falling 1.6% in December. Later this morning markets will get a look at business inventories from December. European shares are higher, with bank stocks leading, ahead of important Brexit vote tomorrow. Asian shares closed mostly higher with Chinese stocks leading.

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1749 Hits

U.S. Futures Are Lower After Disappointing Jobs Data #Unemployment #Inflation #Trade

U.S. futures are lower after disappointing jobs data.  U.S. futures accelerated losses after a weaker-than-expected February jobs report.  Non-farm payrolls grew by 20k in February, well below analyst estimates for a gain of 180k.  The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8%, while the participation rate remained unchanged.  On the inflation front, average hourly earnings rose slightly more than expected, rising 0.4%m/m and 3.4%y/y.  On the housing front, January housing starts and building permits both beat expectations.  European shares are lower, being dragged down by U.S economic data and soft data out of China overnight.  Asian shares closed lower with Chinese stocks getting hit hard after weak trade data.  Chinese exports fell 20%y/y in February, much worse than the 4.8% decline economists had expected.

 

COST-  reported better than expected earnings, however, revenue missed forecasts.  Strong same-store-sales and online sales are helping to boost the stock

 

US Futures Lower / Asia Lower / EU Lower / WTI @ 55.27 -1.39 / Brent 64.67 -1.63 / Nat Gas @ 2.88 +0.02 / Gold @ 1297.70 +11.60 / Platinum 817.44 +2.67 / Silver @ 15.19 +0.15 / Copper @ 2.89 -0.03 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1228+-0.0036 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.63% / 30 Yr @ 3.02%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

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72 Hits

U.S. Futures Reverse Earlier Losses After ECB Decision #Europe #ECB #Jobless

U.S. futures reverse earlier losses after ECB decision.  Global stocks bounced after the ECB said they expect rates to remain unchanged through 2019 or as long as needed.  Additionally, the ECB announced the launch a new refinancing operation (TLTRO-III) that will begin in September, to provide low cost loans to euro area banks to help stimulate the economy.  On the U.S. data front, weekly jobless claims were 223k, about in line with forecasts.  The final read of Q4 non-farm productivity rose more than expected to 1.9%, however, unit labor costs also rose more than expected at 2%.  European stocks also bounced after the ECB decision with bank stocks leading the charge.  Asian stock closed mostly lower with China’s Shanghai composite one of the few indices to close in positive territory.

 

JPM/AMZN-  AMZN and JPM in partnership with Berkshire Hathaway have named their joint health-care venture “Haven” a launched a website for the project.

 

QCOM- according to the WSJ, the Defense and Energy departments are urging the FTC to settle their dispute with Qualcomm as a loss would hurt their ability to compete with China’s Huawei

 

 

US Futures Higher / Asia Lower / EU Higher / WTI @ 56.84 +0.62 / Brent 66.67 +0.68 / Nat Gas @ 2.83 -0.01 / Gold @ 1284.60 -3.00 / Platinum 826.06 -1.34 / Silver @ 15.05 -0.04 / Copper @ 2.92 +0.001 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1259 -0.0046 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.67% / 30 Yr @ 3.05%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

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76 Hits

U.S. Futures Are Slightly Lower as Markets Await Signs of Trade Progress #Trade #China #ADP

U.S. futures are slightly lower as markets await signs of trade progress.  With no new news on the trade front since Monday’s reports that the U.S. and China were close to a deal, markets have been consolidating and searching for direction.  On the data front, the February ADP report showed that private payrolls rose by 183k and January’s numbers were revised higher by 87k.  On the trade front, the December trade deficit rose in December to -$59.8B, larger than expectations despite President Trump’s efforts to move the needle.  European shares are mixed and searching for leadership.  Automobile stocks lagged in the region as trade tensions continue to be front and center.  Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares leading in the region on new stimulus and tax cut plans.

 

 

US Futures Lower / Asia Mixed / EU Mixed / WTI @ 56.00 -0.56 / Brent 65.71 -0.15 / Nat Gas @ 2.86 -0.02 / Gold @ 1285.40 +0.70 / Platinum 827.66 -9.95 / Silver @ 15.10 -0.01 / Copper @ 2.93 -0.004 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1304 -0.0002 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.72% / 30 Yr @ 3.08%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

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93 Hits

U.S. Futures Are Slightly Higher After Volatile Start to the Week #Futures #PMI #Volatility

U.S. futures are slightly higher after volatile start to the week.  Stocks recovered about half of the Monday morning decline, closing 0.4% lower on profit taking.  This morning stocks will look to open slightly higher with a lack of conviction to start the day.  Later this morning, markets will get a look at December new home sales and the ISM non-manufacturing index from February.  European stocks are mixed despite euro area PMI coming in better than original estimates.  Asian markets closed mixed with Chinese shares leading as Premier Li Keqiang announced new tax cuts to battle challenging economic conditions.

 

GOOGL-  Needham started GOOGL with a Buy rating

 

US Futures Higher / Asia Mixed / EU Mixed / WTI @ 56.85 +0.26 / Brent 65.73 +0.06 / Nat Gas @ 2.87 +0.01 / Gold @ 1287.10 -0.40 / Platinum 838.90 +1.88 / Silver @ 15.13 +0.02 / Copper @ 2.95 +0.04 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1327 -0.0001 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.74% / 30 Yr @ 3.11%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

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83 Hits

U.S. Futures Are Higher on Trade Optimism #Tariffs #Futures #China

U.S. futures are higher on trade optimism.  U.S. stocks are rising on a WSJ report that the U.S. and China are in the final stages of an agreement that could be signed soon.  In the report, China was said to be willing to reduce tariffs on a number of American imports as a compromise toward a deal.  On the data front, the market will get a look at construction spending in December.  European shares are higher as trade optimism is boosting global stocks.  Most sectors are trading higher with material stocks leading the pack.  Asian shares closed mostly higher as deal progress lifts the region.

 

AMZN-  Evercore raised their price target to $1965

 

LNG-  is higher on reports that China could buy $18B in natural gas from the company

 

 

US Futures Higher / Asia Higher / EU Higher / WTI @ 56.47 +0.65 / Brent 65.86 +0.79 / Nat Gas @ 2.88 +0.02 / Gold @ 1288.60 -10.60 / Platinum 843.66 -15.55 / Silver @ 15.14 -0.12 / Copper @ 2.91 -0.02 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1344 -0.003 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.74% / 30 Yr @ 3.11%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

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U.S. Futures Are Holding Gains After Data #Futures #PCE #Inflation

U.S. futures are holding gains after data.  U.S. futures remain higher after December personal income and spending data.  Personal income rose 0.1%, below the 0.4% expectations, while spending fell 0.5%.  The weaker spending data was in line with earlier reports of weak retail sales in December.  On the inflation front, core PCE rose 0.2% in December, 1.9% year-over-year.  Later this morning the markets will get a look at the purchasing managers index, the ISM manufacturing index and a final read on consumer sentiment from February.  European shares are trading higher with most sectors positive.  Euro zone inflation remains under control with core inflation rising 1.2% in February.  Asian shares closed higher as mainland China shares surged despite shrinking manufacturing activity.

 

 

US Futures Higher / Asia Higher / EU Higher / WTI @ 57.11 -0.11 / Brent 66.21 -0.10 / Nat Gas @ 2.81 -0.01 / Gold @ 1306.70 -9.40 / Platinum 863.48 -7.37 / Silver @ 15.50 -0.14 / Copper @ 2.96 +0.01 / AGS Mixed / Euro @ 1.1380 +0.001 / 10 Yr UST @ 2.74% / 30 Yr @ 3.11%

 

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS MATERIAL MAY CONTAIN INACCURACIES AND TYPOGRAPHICAL ERRORS. UNITED ASSET DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE MATERIALS OR THE RELIABILITY OF ANY ADVICE, OPINION, STATEMENT OR OTHER INFORMATION DISPLAYED OR DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE SITE.

 

 

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U.S. Futures are Slightly Lower, but Off the Lows After Economic Data #GDP #Jobless #NorthKoreaSummit

U.S. futures are slightly lower, but off the lows after economic data. Futures were under pressure after weak data out of China as well as President Trump leaving his meeting with Kim Jong Un without a deal.  Futures pared losses after the preliminary Q4 GDP rose more than expected, rising 2.6% against expectations of a 2.2% increase. Jobless claims rose 8k to 225k last week, in line with expectations.  Later this morning markets will get a look at the Chicago PMI from February. European shares are mostly lower with basic material stocks leading the declines. Asian shares closed mostly lower as Chinese factory orders declined in February, remaining in contraction territory.

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96 Hits

U.S. Futures are Slightly Lower on Day Two of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to Congress #Fed #TrumpKimSummit #Cohen

U.S. futures are slightly lower on day-two of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress. At 10am, investors will be watching for cues from day-two of Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the House Finance Committee. On the political front, President Trump is meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in hopes to get a timeline for denuclearization in the country. President Trump’s attendance of the summit may get overshadowed by his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, testifying to the House Oversight Committee. Mr. Cohen is likely to accuse the President of wrongdoing during the presidential campaign. On the data front, the trade deficit widened in December to $79.5B as exports fell 2.8% while imports rose 2.4%. Later this morning the market will get a look at December factory orders and pending home sales from January. European shares are lower with most sectors trading lower. British Prime Minister Theresa May said yesterday that she would be open to extending the March 29th deadline for Brexit in order to try to get a deal done. Asian shares closed mostly higher, however, India’s markets were weaker as tensions mount between India and Pakistan.

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89 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower on Corporate News and Economic Data #Earnings #HousingStarts #Brexit

U.S. futures are lower on corporate news and economic data. Weaker than expected earnings from Home Depot along with multiple downgrades of Caterpillar were weighing on markets this morning. Home Depot disappointed on earnings and revenue, however, boosted buybacks and raised their dividend. On the data front, housing starts fell more than expected, falling 11.2% in December, while permits were slightly better than expected, rising 0.3%. Later this morning the market will get a look at December home prices, February consumer confidence and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his semi-annual report to Congress. Also happening today will be a House vote to attempt to block President Trump’s declaration of an emergency to build the border wall.  European shares are lower, with most sectors trading lower. Reports have surfaced speculating that Prime Minister Theresa May is considering delaying the Brexit deadline as pressure builds over potentially leaving without a deal. Asian shares closed lower as trade headlines dominate the region.

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94 Hits

January FOMC Minutes Review #FOMC

The market’s initial response to the FOMC minutes implies a mildly dovish interpretation. Some investors found comfort in the idea that the balance sheet runoff may conclude this year. Others are unconvinced that this is what the fed intended to signal. The rationale is that the fed only signaled that an announcement would take place this year, rather than a firm 2019 end date. Considering the following quotes from the minutes, I think it’s clear that they do indeed intend to end QT this year.

Page 10 “Against this backdrop, the staff presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year and thereafter holding the size of the SOMA portfolio roughly constant for a time so that the average level of reserves would fall at a very gradual pace reflecting the trend growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities.”

Page 11 “Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year.”

Another interesting point is that some participants may prefer to continue reducing the portfolio’s MBS holdings while reinvesting in treasuries only. This could push mortgage spreads wider over time.

Page 12 “Participants commented that, in light of the Committee’s longstanding plan to hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run, it would be appropriate once asset redemptions end to reinvest most, if not all, principal payments received from agency MBS in Treasury securities.”

To me, the biggest question from here is; WHEN in 2019 will QT end? While the fed has communicated its willingness (and perhaps its intention) to end QT this year, a whole 10 months remain in 2019. Given the current cap of $50B/month, the amount of reduction can actually wind up exceeding that of 2018. Remember, the cap (max monthly reduction) didn’t hit $50B until October 2018. There hasn’t been a big market response to the minutes, but this may not wind up being as supportive as it seems on the surface.
 

 

Matt DeLorenzo, Fixed Income Strategist

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99 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as President Trump Delays Trade Deadline #Futures #TradeTalks #Tariffs

U.S. futures are higher as President Trump delays the trade deadline for higher tariffs. President Trump tweeted that due to progress on structural issues with China, he will delay raising tariffs that were originally scheduled for March 1st. The President also stated that if the progress continues, he and President Xi will meet to sign an agreement. European shares are also rallying on the back of potential trade progress. Automotive stocks led the charge as they are highly linked to trade policies. Prime Minister Theresa May has delayed another key vote on Brexit, now moving the next important vote to March 12, just ahead of the scheduled departure of March 29. Asian stocks closed higher, with China’s Shanghai surging over 5% on the news that President Trump will delay additional tariffs.

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101 Hits

US Futures are Higher as Trade Talks Momentum Builds Between US and China #Futures #TradeTalks #Tariffs

US futures are higher this morning as momentum is building in trade talks between the US and China.  President Trump is expected to meet with China’s Vice Premier later today ahead of the March 1st deadline for moving $200 Billion worth of goods into the 25% tariff territory from 10%. Many believe that March 1st deadline may be extended as we enter the more difficult parts of the negotiations.  Markets in Asia closed mostly higher led by the Shanghai index which closed up almost 2 percent. European markets are trading higher as a group on optimism surrounding the US and China trade talks.

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United Asset Strategies Makes Forbes Top 50 Wealth Advisors in New York State

United Asset Strategies, Inc. is pleased to announce it has been named to this year’s Forbes’ Best-In-State Wealth Advisors list in New York for the second consecutive year. United has moved up in the ranks, achieving 13th in the state on this year’s list.

Each advisor has been selected by SHOOK Research based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative criteria, starting with in-person interviews. Advisors being considered are then evaluated based on years of experience, revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, and best practices in their approach to working with clients.

For the complete article, go to https://www.forbes.com/best-in-state-wealth-advisors/#6c9546c3291d

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108 Hits

US Futures are Lower Following Economic Data Coming in Worse Than Expected #Futures #Jobless #Tariffs

US futures are lower this morning following economic data that came in worse than expected. The Philadelphia Fed business index and core capital goods orders both came in below estimates, while weekly jobless claims were better than expected. The main focus will still be on trade negotiations between the US and China with the upcoming March 1 deadline on tariffs being implemented. Markets in Asia closed mixed with the Shanghai slightly lower while the Hang Seng and the Nikkei closed higher. European markets are trading mostly lower led by the FTSE following some worse than expected earnings. Later today we will get the release of the preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI and the index of Leading Economic Indicators.

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96 Hits

US Futures are Slightly Lower as Trade Deadline Approaches #Futures #TradeTalks #FOMC

US futures are slightly lower as investors remain cautious ahead of continued trade talks between the US and China. There is currently a March 1 deadline for a new agreement before an increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from the current 10%. Markets in Asia closed mostly higher led by the Hang Seng as the yuan strengthened after reports that the US is requesting that China keep the yuan stable as part of the trade deal.  European markets are trading higher led by the DAX. Later today, we will get the Fed minutes from their January meeting.

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117 Hits

US Futures are Lower Despite US and China Trade Talks Continuing #TradeTalks #Earnings #Walmart

US futures are lower despite better than expected earnings out of Walmart as trade talks between the US and China continue. Trade talks are expected to begin today and higher level talks are expected later this week. The Dow is getting a boost out of Wal-Mart after they reported better than expected earnings on the bottom line while also showing a better than expected same store sales number. Markets in Asia closed mixed with the Hang Seng lower while the Shanghai market was slightly higher as uncertainty over trade talks kept investors at bay while European markets are trading lower led by the FTSE. Later today, traders will look forward to the National Association of Home Builders housing market index.    

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105 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as the Spending Bill Moves to the President’s Desk #Shutdown #NationalEmergency #Manufacturing

U.S. futures are higher as the spending bill moves to the President’s desk. President Trump is expected to sign the spending bill that will keep the government funded through the end of September. Since the bill only included $1.375b for a border wall, President Trump is likely to declare a national emergency in order to raise the funding for the border wall to in excess of $8b. The declaration will be hit with strong resistance from the democratic party who will likely try to slow or stop the process with legal action challenging the President’s authority. On the trade front, U.S./China trade talks will continue into next week as both sides agree there is much to do, but progress is being made. On the data front, import and export prices fell in January, falling 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The Empire State Manufacturing survey came in slightly higher than expected in February at 8.8. Later this morning the markets will get a look at January industrial production and consumer sentiment from February. European shares are higher with material stocks leading as trade talk progress. Asian shares closed lower with China’s Hang Seng index leading the losses. On the data front, Chinese inflation missed expectations, with CPI rising 1.7% against expectations of a 1.9% rise.

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119 Hits

U.S. Futures Retreat After Weaker Than Expected Data #RetailSales #PPI #Jobless

U.S. futures retreat after weaker-than-expected data. Futures have turned negative after December retail sales disappoints, falling 1.2% against expectations of a slight rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index declined 0.1% in January, while analysts were looking for a gain of 0.2%. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly more than expected, rising 4k to 239k last week. European shares are holding on to gains with industrial stocks leading higher. Asian shares closed mostly lower. On the data front, Japan’s economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4.

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106 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise on Optimism Over a Tentative Agreement to Avert a Shutdown #Futures #Shutdown #NFIB

U.S. futures rise on optimism over a tentative agreement to avert a shutdown. U.S. futures rose after reports of a bi-partisan agreement on border security funding which would avoid another partial government shutdown beginning this weekend. The deal only allocates roughly $1.4b for a physical barrier, well below the $5.7b that President Trump was seeking. President Trump has yet to respond to the proposed agreement, so questions remain on whether he would sign such a deal if passed by congress. On the data front, NFIB small business optimism was slightly lower than expectations in January and later this morning investors will get a look job openings and labor turnover from December. European shares are higher, with all sectors trading higher. Asian shares closed higher with Japanese shares leading the region.

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119 Hits

U.S. Futures Look to Open the Week Higher #Futures #China #Trade

U.S. futures look to open the week higher. Futures are rising this morning on optimism over a potential March meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Speculation that the two could meet at Trump’s Florida club, Mar-a-Lago. European shares are higher, with all sectors trading higher, as optimism grows over trade talks. Asian shares closed mixed, with Chinese shares leading higher after a week-long closure for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s Nikkei was closed on holiday.

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114 Hits

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