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US Futures are Slightly Lower as Trade Deadline Approaches #Futures #TradeTalks #FOMC

US futures are slightly lower as investors remain cautious ahead of continued trade talks between the US and China. There is currently a March 1 deadline for a new agreement before an increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from the current 10%. Markets in Asia closed mostly higher led by the Hang Seng as the yuan strengthened after reports that the US is requesting that China keep the yuan stable as part of the trade deal.  European markets are trading higher led by the DAX. Later today, we will get the Fed minutes from their January meeting.

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US Futures are Lower Despite US and China Trade Talks Continuing #TradeTalks #Earnings #Walmart

US futures are lower despite better than expected earnings out of Walmart as trade talks between the US and China continue. Trade talks are expected to begin today and higher level talks are expected later this week. The Dow is getting a boost out of Wal-Mart after they reported better than expected earnings on the bottom line while also showing a better than expected same store sales number. Markets in Asia closed mixed with the Hang Seng lower while the Shanghai market was slightly higher as uncertainty over trade talks kept investors at bay while European markets are trading lower led by the FTSE. Later today, traders will look forward to the National Association of Home Builders housing market index.    

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23 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as the Spending Bill Moves to the President’s Desk #Shutdown #NationalEmergency #Manufacturing

U.S. futures are higher as the spending bill moves to the President’s desk. President Trump is expected to sign the spending bill that will keep the government funded through the end of September. Since the bill only included $1.375b for a border wall, President Trump is likely to declare a national emergency in order to raise the funding for the border wall to in excess of $8b. The declaration will be hit with strong resistance from the democratic party who will likely try to slow or stop the process with legal action challenging the President’s authority. On the trade front, U.S./China trade talks will continue into next week as both sides agree there is much to do, but progress is being made. On the data front, import and export prices fell in January, falling 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The Empire State Manufacturing survey came in slightly higher than expected in February at 8.8. Later this morning the markets will get a look at January industrial production and consumer sentiment from February. European shares are higher with material stocks leading as trade talk progress. Asian shares closed lower with China’s Hang Seng index leading the losses. On the data front, Chinese inflation missed expectations, with CPI rising 1.7% against expectations of a 1.9% rise.

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35 Hits

U.S. Futures Retreat After Weaker Than Expected Data #RetailSales #PPI #Jobless

U.S. futures retreat after weaker-than-expected data. Futures have turned negative after December retail sales disappoints, falling 1.2% against expectations of a slight rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index declined 0.1% in January, while analysts were looking for a gain of 0.2%. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly more than expected, rising 4k to 239k last week. European shares are holding on to gains with industrial stocks leading higher. Asian shares closed mostly lower. On the data front, Japan’s economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4.

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32 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise on Optimism Over a Tentative Agreement to Avert a Shutdown #Futures #Shutdown #NFIB

U.S. futures rise on optimism over a tentative agreement to avert a shutdown. U.S. futures rose after reports of a bi-partisan agreement on border security funding which would avoid another partial government shutdown beginning this weekend. The deal only allocates roughly $1.4b for a physical barrier, well below the $5.7b that President Trump was seeking. President Trump has yet to respond to the proposed agreement, so questions remain on whether he would sign such a deal if passed by congress. On the data front, NFIB small business optimism was slightly lower than expectations in January and later this morning investors will get a look job openings and labor turnover from December. European shares are higher, with all sectors trading higher. Asian shares closed higher with Japanese shares leading the region.

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41 Hits

U.S. Futures Look to Open the Week Higher #Futures #China #Trade

U.S. futures look to open the week higher. Futures are rising this morning on optimism over a potential March meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Speculation that the two could meet at Trump’s Florida club, Mar-a-Lago. European shares are higher, with all sectors trading higher, as optimism grows over trade talks. Asian shares closed mixed, with Chinese shares leading higher after a week-long closure for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s Nikkei was closed on holiday.

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38 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Markets Digest Gains #Futures #Trade #China

U.S. futures are lower as markets digest gains. Futures look to extend yesterday’s losses after a strong move higher over the past six weeks. Some of the weakness is likely attributed to reports that President Trump doesn’t plan to meet President Xi Jinping prior to the March 1st deadline. European shares are mostly lower with automotive stocks lagging. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japanese shares lagging the region. The Hang Seng re-opened yesterday after nearly a week off from the Lunar New Year celebrations.

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38 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Global Growth Concerns Grow #EU #EconomicGrowth #Softbank

U.S. futures are lower as global growth concerns grow. U.S. futures dropped to the morning lows after the European Commission cut their growth forecast for the euro zone to 1.3% in 2019. The euro zone grew at a 1.9% pace in 2018. On the data front, the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims fell by 19k to 234k, above estimates for 223k. European shares are lower on weak earnings and the reduced growth outlook for the area, with media stocks fairing the worst. Asian stocks were mixed with Japanese stocks falling despite a 17% gain in Softbank shares following the announcement of a $5.5b share repurchase plan.

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38 Hits

U.S. Futures are Flat as Investors Digest the President’s State of the Union Address #SOTU #Trade #Oil

U.S. futures are flat as investors digest the President’s State of the Union address. President Trump’s second State of the Union address went as expected with discussions of infrastructure spending, reducing prescription drug costs and the need for a comprehensive immigration plan that will include a physical barrier. On the data front, the November trade balance showed a decline in the deficit to -$49.3B, well below expectations of -$54B. Later this morning markets will get a look at weekly oil and gas inventories. European shares are mixed with technology stocks showing strength. Many Asian markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Of the Asian markets open, stocks were mixed.

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38 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union Speech #Futures #SOTU #PMI

U.S. futures are higher ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union speech. This evening President Trump will address Congress on the state of the U.S. and ideas that he would like to implement going forward. President Trump will likely discuss China/U.S. trade, the need for infrastructure spending, drug pricing issues and possibly a border wall. On the data front, later this morning markets will get a look at services PMI and the ISM non-manufacturing index from January. European shares are higher with most sector trading higher despite euro zone retail sales falling in December. Energy stocks are leading, getting help from better-than-expected earnings report out of BP. Asian shares closed mixed in limited trading. Most Asian markets were closed on holiday for the Lunar New Year.

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43 Hits

U.S. Futures are Flat as Investors Await Another Big Week of Earning Reports #Earnings #FactoryOrders

U.S. futures are flat as investors await another big week of earning reports. This week the market will get earning reports from Alphabet, BP, GM, Cummins, Disney and many more. Later this morning, markets will get a look at factory orders from November, with analysts expecting a rise to 0.3% from October’s decline. European shares are mostly lower with automobile stocks leading the declines. Asian shares gained on Monday in limited trading. Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

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41 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise After Strong Employment Data #JobsReport #Employment #Payrolls

U.S. futures rise after strong employment data. The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 304k in January, well ahead of expectations for a gain of 158k. December’s large payroll gain was revised lower by 90K, however, November was revised higher by 20k. Average hourly earning rose less than expected in January, however, in line with the 3.2% year-over-year gain. European shares are mixed with bank stocks lagging. Euro zone inflation fell to 1.4% in January, below expectations.  Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares leading despite a report showing that China’s manufacturing activity slowed in January.

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40 Hits

U.S. Futures Gyrate After Yesterday’s Fed-Induced Surge #Fed #InterestRates #Jobless

U.S. futures gyrate after yesterday’s Fed-induced surge. U.S. stocks rallied after Fed Chairman Powell indicated that gradual rate hikes were done for now and the Fed will remain patient evaluating new data. On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, rising 253k last week. Today’s scheduled release of December personal income and spending data has been delayed. European shares are mixed with materials stocks leading higher. Eurozone growth was 0.2% in Q4, rising 1.2% in 2018. Asian shares closed mixed. Chinese shares managed gains despite PMI data from January showing the second consecutive month of contraction.

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314 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Earnings Boost Stocks #Earnings #Employment #FOMC

U.S. futures are higher as earnings boost stocks. Futures have been gaining traction throughout the morning after better-than-expected earnings from Apple, Boeing, Amgen, McDonalds and others. On the data front, ADP reported that private payrolls jumped more than expected in January, rising 213k, against expectation of a rise of 174k. Later today the market will focus on the FOMC rate decision and press conference to follow. Today will begin the regime of a press conference following every FOMC meeting. European shares are mostly higher despite euro zone economic sentiment falling to a two-year low. Asian shares closed mixed as investor await any developments out of the meetings between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and Robert Lighthizer today in Washington.

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45 Hits

U.S. Futures Turn Higher, Erasing Earlier Losses #Earnings #HomePrices #Brexit

U.S. futures turn higher, erasing earlier losses. Futures have been gaining steam despite mixed earnings reports and weaker guidance out of several companies. Pfizer, 3M and Haley Davidson are among the companies that offered disappointing 2019 guidance. On the data front, markets will get a look at November home prices and current month consumer confidence. European shares are broadly higher ahead a Brexit vote in Parliament that would put Brexit on hold. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares underperforming the region. News of the U.S officially requesting the extradition of the CFO of Huawei has put pressure on Chinese stocks as concerns grow over the ability to reach a trade deal.

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165 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After Friday’s Gains #Shutdown #Caterpillar #Earnings

U.S. futures are lower after Friday’s gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 1% on Friday over optimism around a potential deal to fund the government. Futures weakened this morning after earnings from Caterpillar missed estimates and the company provided weaker guidance. President Trump signed a bill to temporarily end the government shutdown. The bill will fund the government through February 15th at which point President Trump pledges to close the government again if funding for a wall cannot be agreed upon. European shares are lower with most sectors trading lower. Asian share closed flat to lower with Australian stock outperforming the region.

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53 Hits

LIBOR to SOFR – Preparing for Changes #LIBOR #SOFR #bonds

Largely due to its history of scandal and manipulation, LIBOR is being phased out. While this isn’t new information, we’ve been tracking updates here at United. The rate is being replaced with SOFR, or the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. Since many financial obligations with floating rate structures are tied to LIBOR, we feel this transition and the accompanying details is very important. Some details remain to be hammered out, but we note some of these relevant points:

  • LIBOR is expected to be completely phased out by Q4 2021. SOFR is the replacement rate.
  • The transition will primarily impact longer dated bonds and obligations. Many will mature before Q4 2021 and thus won’t be impacted.
  • SOFR is naturally a lower rate than LIBOR. This is partly due to the fact that SOFR is a secured rate, while LIBOR is supposed to reflect the credit risk of financial institutions.
  • SOFR can only be observed back to 2014, but it tracks fairly close to the fed funds rate.
  • Given that LIBOR is a higher rate than SOFR, a direct replacement would abruptly change the rate on many financial instruments. Since this would be very problematic, there is likely to be a ‘spread adjustment’ of about 10 basis points. An obligation that previously paid 3 Month LIBOR + 100 basis points would in theory be converted to SOFR + 110 basis points.

While the transition will impact many types of financial obligations, we are most interested in its impact on LIBOR linked bonds, preferred stocks and bank loans. We find that in situations like this, refining our understanding ahead of time helps us to identify value for clients when dislocations occur.
 

Matt DeLorenzo, Fixed Income Strategist
 

https://www.newyorkfed.org/arrc/governance.html

https://www.isda.org/a/g2hEE/IBOR-Global-Transition-Roadmap-2018.pdf

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98 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Party Leaders Try to Iron Out a Deal #Shutdown #DurableGoods #HomeSales

U.S. Futures are higher as party leaders try to iron-out a deal. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer are said to be working on a deal to get the government reopened after the Senate rejected both bills in yesterday’s vote. On the data front, the December durable goods report will be delayed due to the government shutdown. Later this morning, markets will get a look at December new home sales. European shares are higher with technology shares leading higher. Asian shares closed broadly higher despite renewed trade uncertainty.

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47 Hits

U.S. Futures are Mixed After Data #Earnings #Jobless #ECB

U.S. Futures are mixed after data. Stock futures were boosted early by better than expected earnings reports but have since faded after jobless claims data and comments from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Weekly jobless claims fell last week to 199k, well below expectations of 218k. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross commented that the U.S and China are still very far from a trade deal in an interview on CNBC this morning. In Europe, shares are mostly higher despite weak PMI data out of Germany and France, both showing contraction. On the monetary policy front, the ECB left rates unchanged and continues to expect to keep the status quo through the summer of this year or longer if necessary. Asian markets closed mostly higher, however, Japanese shares lagged the region.

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51 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Earnings Reports Drive Gains #Futures #Earnings #Shutdown

U.S. Futures are higher as earnings reports drive gains. Better than expected reports out of Comcast, United Technologies, P&G, IBM and others have lifted stocks pre-market. On the political front, tomorrow the U.S. Senate will vote on two separate proposals to end the government shutdown, with neither likely to be successful. European shares are mostly higher, erasing earlier losses, however technology and banking stocks are lagging. Asian shares closed mixed, erasing earlier gains, with several markets closing near unchanged.

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65 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After a Strong Week of Gains #HomeSales #GDP #China

U.S. Futures are lower after a strong week of gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 3% last week, now almost 14% off the December lows. On the data front, later this morning markets will get a look at December existing home sales. Global stocks are being weighed down by a downward revision to global growth estimates by the IMF, revising 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7% back in October. European shares are lower with banks and miners leading stocks lower. Asian stocks closed lower with Chinese stocks leading the decline after reporting a multi-decade low growth rate in 2018 of 6.6%.

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66 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher Following Yesterday’s Late Day Surge #Tariffs #China #Manufacturing

U.S. Futures are higher following yesterday’s late day surge. Markets jumped late yesterday after reports that the WSJ had reported that White House officials were considering rolling back tariffs to make trade progress. While the report was later denied, the markets held most of the gains and it ignited European and Asian shares this morning. In the U.S., December industrial production is due out at 9:15am and shortly after a preliminary reading on January consumer sentiment. European shares are higher with automobile companies and materials stocks leading on U.S./China potential progress. Asian shares closed higher with Chinese shares leading.

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73 Hits

U.S. Futures Bounce From Lows After Data #Jobless #MorganStanley #TheresaMay

U.S. Futures bounce from lows after data. Futures are off the morning lows as jobless claims came in lower than expected and the January Philadelphia Fed index surprised to the upside. Futures have been weighed-down by weaker results out of Morgan Stanley and reports that the U.S. may indict Chinese technology companies for stealing trade secrets. European shares are lower on concerns over U.S./China relations, with banking stocks leading lower. Prime Minister Theresa May survived yesterday’s no-confidence vote, so she will be forced to go back to the drawing board and find common ground between parties to move Brexit negotiations forward. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese shares lagging the region.

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72 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Earnings Help Lift Stocks #Earnings #Banks #Brexit

U.S. Futures are higher as earnings help lift stocks. Strong earnings from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, United Continental and others have boosted stocks this morning. On the data front, December retail sales will be delayed due to the government shutdown. In other data, import prices fell 1%, while export prices fell 0.6% in December. Later today, the market will get a look at business inventories from November, the January housing market index and the Fed Beige Book. European shares are mostly higher with banks stocks leading. British parliament overwhelmingly voted against Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal yesterday, which will likely delay the Brexit process. Next lawmakers will hold a no-confidence vote for Theresa May. If PM Theresa May does not survive the no-confidence vote, Britain will hold a new general election. Asian shares closed mixed Japanese shares lagging the region.

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80 Hits

U.S. Futures are Trading Flat on Mixed Earnings News #China #PPI #Manufacturing

U.S. Futures are trading flat on mixed earnings news. Mixed earnings results out of JPM and Wells Fargo put mild pressure on stocks which had been higher on comments out of China on additional stimulus for the slowing economy. On the data front, December PPI came in below expectations, falling 0.2% (-0.1 excluding food & energy) against expectations of unchanged. The January Empire Manufacturing index also disappointed at 3.9 against expectations of 10. European shares are mixed as investors await an important parliament vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan later today. On the data front, German economic output rose 1.5% last year, the weakest growth in five years. Asian shares closed higher with Chinese stocks leading the gains as stimulus hopes rise.

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77 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Earnings Season Kicks Into Gear #Earnings #Financials #China

U.S. Futures are lower as earnings season kicks into gear. This week will be a big week for bank earnings with reports from Citi, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley and several smaller regionals. Markets dipped this morning as data out of China showed further weakness as both imports and exports dropped in December. The China data also sent European stocks lower, with technology stocks leading the declines. Asian shares closed lower with Chinese stocks leading lower.

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81 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Retailers Post Weaker Same-Store Sales #Retail #Powell #ECB

U.S. Futures are lower as retailers post weaker same-store sales. Weaker-than-expected same-store sales from Macys, Kohls and L Brands are weighing on retail stocks pre-market. On the data front, jobless claims fell by 17k last week to 216k, lower than estimated of 222k. Today several Fed Presidents will speak at various meetings, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington. European shares are trading lower ahead of the release of the ECB meeting minutes. Asian shares closed mixed after Chinese inflation data came in weaker than expected.

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87 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher Ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes #FOMC #Fed #Trade

U.S. Futures are higher ahead of FOMC meeting minutes. Later this afternoon, the Fed will release the minutes from the December policy meeting. Markets will look for any changes within the minutes for cues on the future of Fed policy. European shares are higher with materials and automotive stocks leading higher on trade optimism. Asian shares closed higher, with Chinese markets leading higher, as trade talks conclude with some progress.

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574 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher on Trade Optimism #China #Sears #Oil

U.S. Futures are higher on trade optimism. As U.S. and Chinese officials try to compromise on trade issues, markets are optimistic progress can be made and continue to move higher off the December lows. Retailer Sears may be forced to liquidate after the company failed to come to agreement with Eddie Lampert on his bid to buy the company out of bankruptcy. On the data front, later this morning markets will get a look at oil and gas inventories. European shares are higher with retailers leading higher. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese markets underperforming the region.

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94 Hits

U.S. Futures are Flat as Markets Digest Friday’s Surge #Trade #China #ISM

U.S. Futures are flat as markets digest Friday’s surge. U.S. markets closed up between 3 and 4% on Friday, as markets bounce from the late December lows. Markets are hopeful that progress can be made in U.S./China negotiations this week as officials meet to work out differences. On the data front, November factory order will not be released today due to the government shutdown, however, the market will get a look at the services industry when the ISM releases the non-manufacturing index at 10am. European shares are trading mostly lower as German industrial orders were weaker than expected in November. Asian shares closed higher as Japan’s Nikkei 225 bounced back to lead the region higher.

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88 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher, but Pared Gains After Strong Jobs Data #Jobs #Unemployment #Inflation

U.S. futures are higher, but pared gains after strong jobs data. The U.S. economy added 312k jobs in December, nearly double expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as the participation rate rose to 63.1% as more people enter the workforce. On the inflation front, avg hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y, both higher than expectations. The strong jobs number caused yields to surge and equities to pullback, however, equities are still firmly in positive territory. European shares are higher with materials stocks leading higher after the U.S. and China agreed to have trade talks in China early next week. Asian shares diverged and closed mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down more than 2% while China’s markets rose in excess of 2%. In Japan, this was the first trading day of the year, while Chinese shares rose on optimism over trade talks.

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1186 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower on Fears of Global Slowdown #Apple #Manufacturing #Payrolls

U.S. Futures are lower on fears of global slowdown. Stock futures slid late yesterday after Apple lowered guidance on weaker China sales. Markets are trying to discount if this represents a broader slowdown or more Apple specific. On the data front, December ADP private payrolls were much higher than expected at 271k, while jobless claims from last week were also higher than expected at 231k. Later this morning markets will get a look at the December ISM manufacturing index and construction spending from November. European shares are lower with technology shares leading the declines. Asian shares closed mostly lower, however, Japanese markets were closed on holiday.

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91 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After Disappointing Economic Data from China and the Euro Zone #PMI #China #Europe

U.S. Futures are lower after disappointing economic data from China and the euro zone. U.S. stocks are looking to open in excess of 1% lower on weaker global PMI data. Later this morning, markets will get a look at U.S. PMI data from December. European shares are lower with materials stocks leading shares lower. Euro zone IHS Markit’s final manufacturing PMI came in below forecasts in December, the lowest reading since early 2016. Asian shares closed lower to start the new year, with China’s Hang Seng leading the declines. China’s manufacturing PMI fell below 50 to 49.7 in December, the first contraction since mid-2017.

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69 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher on Trade Optimism After President Trump’s Tweet on Progress #China #Trade #DAX

U.S. Futures are higher on trade optimism after President Trump’s tweet on progress. President Trump had a constructive conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the weekend in regard to trade negotiations. President Trump claims progress has been made on a comprehensive deal that addresses all sticking points. European stock are mixed to end the year, while the German DAX is closed on Holiday. Asian shares closed mixed with strength in Chinese shares despite weaker than expected manufacturing in December.

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95 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher After Stocks Staged a Big Comeback on Thursday #HomeSales #PMI #Nikkei

U.S. Futures are higher after stocks staged a big comeback on Thursday. Stocks are looking to follow-through higher on Friday after erasing a nearly 2.5% decline on Thursday, closing almost 1% higher. Later this morning, markets will get a look at pending home sales from November and Chicago PMI for December. European shares are broadly higher with technology and financial stocks leading higher. Asian shares closed mostly higher, however, Japan’s Nikkei lagged the region. The Japanese Nikkei 225 posted its first annual loss since 2011.

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112 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After Stocks Surged on Wednesday #Jobless #ConsumerConfidence #DAX

U.S. Futures are lower after stocks surged on Wednesday. U.S. stocks rose around 5% on Wednesday after investors stepped in to buy oversold levels. On the data front, weekly jobless claims fell 1k, from a revised 217K last week. November new home sales will not be released today due to the government shutdown. Later this morning, markets will get a look at December consumer confidence. European shares are broadly lower after being closed yesterday on holiday, with the Germany’s DAX is leading the declines, falling around 2%. Asian shares closed mixed with Japan’s NIKKEI surging nearly 4%, while China’s Hang Seng closed down in excess of 0.5%.

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106 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher Following Large Declines in Monday’s Abbreviated Session #SPX #HomePrices

U.S. Futures are higher following large declines in Monday’s abbreviated session. The S&P 500 fell nearly 3% on Monday in an abbreviated session, as equity markets closed at 1pm. On the data front, markets will get a look at October home prices, when the Case-Shiller report is released this morning. European markets are closed today on holiday. Asian shares closed mixed with Japan’s Nikkei leading gains.

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96 Hits

U.S. Futures are Off the Overnight Lows as the Markets Digest the FOMC Decision #FOMC #BOE #Jobless

U.S. Futures are off the overnight lows as the markets digest the FOMC decision. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 0.25% and lowered the expectation for futures raises. Markets sold-off in reaction to Chairman Powell’s comments during the press conference which seemed to indicate the Fed was less dovish than markets had hoped for. On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose by 8k, to 214k. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey was much weaker than expected at 9.4 vs 16.5 estimates. European shares are lower with basic material stocks leading lower. The BOE held rates unchanged this morning as expected. Asian shares closed lower with Japanese shares leading the decline.

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115 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher as Investors Await an Important FOMC Announcement #FOMC #Housing #Oil

U.S. Futures are higher as investors await an important FOMC announcement. At 2pm today will be the FOMC rate decision, followed by a 2:30pm press conference. The market is expecting a rate hike with dovish tone toward expectations of future rate hikes. In other data, later this morning the market will get a look at November existing home sales and oil/gas inventories from last week. European shares are trading higher with bank stocks leading higher. Asian markets closed mixed, with weakness in energy names as oil prices continued to fall overnight.

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111 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher After Stocks Fell 2% on Monday #Housing #Oil #China

U.S. futures are higher after stocks fell 2% on Monday. Futures have been rising throughout the morning, but still below yesterday’s opening values. On the data front, housing starts and building permits both beat analyst estimates in November, rising 3.2% and 5%, respectively. European stocks are mixed with energy related names dragging down stocks as oil falls to new lows. Asian shares closed lower with Japanese shares leading the declines. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech on the 40th anniversary of China’s economic reform, however, his speech offered nothing new on trade with the U.S. and failed to lift stocks.

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94 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower After the S&P 500 Closed at the Lowest Level Since April #SPX #Manufacturing #Fed

U.S. futures are lower after the S&P 500 closed at the lowest level since April. Futures have been drifting lower this morning, but losses accelerated after the December Empire manufacturing survey came in below estimates. Along with the weaker Empire survey, President Trump once again tweeted about his opposition to future Fed rate hikes. European shares are trading lower with retail stocks leading lower.  Asian shares closed mostly higher, however, Chinese stocks underperformed the region.

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111 Hits

U.S. Futures are Lower as Global Stocks Sink $SPY #retailsales

U.S. futures are lower as global stocks sink.  U.S. stocks are lower as fears of a global slowdown re-emerge on weaker data in Europe and Asia.  In U.S. data, November retail sales were stronger than expected, however, the positive data failed to boost stocks.  Later this morning, the market will get a look at industrial production from November and business inventories from October.  European stocks are broadly lower with materials stocks leading lower.  Eurozone PMI fell to the lowest level in 4 years.  Asian shares closed broadly lower after weaker than expected industrial output and retail sales in China.

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104 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher After Data #Jobless #Imports #Exports #ECB

U.S. futures are higher after data. Jobless claims fell 27k, to 206k last week, a larger decline than economists were expecting. Import and export prices both fell more than expected in November, falling 1.6% and 0.9% m/m, respectively. European shares are mostly higher after the ECB left rates unchanged as expected. Additionally, the ECB will officially end new purchases as part of their 2.6 T euro QE program, however, they will continue to reinvest previous purchases as they mature. Asian shares closed higher with Chinese shares leading the region.

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84 Hits

U.S. Futures are Looking to Open Higher After Failing to Hold Yesterday’s Gains #Trade #Brexit #CPI

U.S. Futures are looking to open higher after failing to hold yesterday’s gains. Markets will try to hold pre-market gains after giving back all pre-market gains yesterday, closing near unchanged on the day. Inflation data was reported in line with expectations with CPI unchanged in November. Core CPI also was reported in line with expectations, rising 0.2% for the month. European shares are higher with materials stocks leading. At 8pm London time, British Prime Minister Theresa May will face a confidence vote from the conservative party. Asian shares closed higher as trade tensions eased on positive comments from both U.S. and Chinese leaders.

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119 Hits

U.S. Futures are Higher Following Yesterday’s Reversal #Trade #China #PPI

U.S. Futures are higher following yesterday’s reversal. U.S. stocks are looking to follow-through on the gains from the last half of yesterday’s session. The move this morning seems to be related to trade optimism after comments out of China on the possibility of reduced tariffs on automobile imports. On the data front, producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November, rising 0.1%, versus expectations for no change. European shares are trading higher with basic material companies leading on positive trade-related comments. Asian shares closed mixed with Chinese stocks leading and Japanese stocks underperforming the region.

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117 Hits

U.S. Futures are Near Morning Highs as Markets get Ready to Open #SPX #Jobs #Brexit

U.S. Futures are near morning highs as markets get ready to open. S&P 500 futures are about 30 points off the overnight lows as the market tries to stabilize after last week’s rout, falling in excess of 4%. Later this morning, markets will get a look at job openings, hiring and quit data from October. European shares are mostly lower; however, Britain’s FTSE 100 is higher after reports that an important Brexit vote could be delayed or not happen at all. Asian closed mostly lower as weaker-than-expected trade data out of China pulled down stocks.

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U.S. Futures Turn Positive After Employment Data $SPY #Jobs

U.S. futures turn positive after employment data.  The U.S. economy added 155k jobs in November, less than the expected gain of 190k, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.7%.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y, both slightly below consensus.  The employment data caused futures to turn positive as the data seems to give the Fed less pressure to raise rates.  European shares are bouncing from yesterday’s rout, with technology names leading higher.  Asian shares closed mostly higher with Chinese shares lagging the region.

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U.S. Futures are Lower on Fears of Renewed Trade Tensions #Huawei #Trade #China

U.S. Futures are lower on fears of renewed trade tensions. News that Canadian authorities had arrested Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou at the request of the U.S., renewed concerns over the trade relationship between the U.S. and China. On the data front, jobless claims rose slightly more than expected last week to 231k. The trade deficit widened to $55.5 B in October as imports rise and exports fall. Non-farm productivity for Q3 was reported in line with expectations, rising 2.3%, while unit labor cost rose 0.9%. Later this morning the market will get a look at factory orders from October and the November read on the ISM non-manufacturing index. European shares are sharply lower as trade tensions rise. Technology shares and basic resource stocks with exposure to China are getting hit the most. Asian shares closed sharply lower as technology shares lagged.

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122 Hits

U.S. Futures Rise After Sharp Sell-Off #NationalDayOfMourning #BeigeBook #Mortgage

U.S. Futures rise after sharp sell-off. U.S. futures are rising this morning after falling between 3-4% in yesterday’s trading session. The U.S. markets will be closed today to honor the memory of President George H.W. Bush. On the data front, mortgage applications rose less than expected last week despite a strong bounce in refinancing as rates pulled-back slightly. Later today the Fed will release the Beige Book, showing anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in each of the twelve Fed districts. European shares are trading lower with construction and materials stocks leading lower. Eurozone retail sales were stronger-than-expected with strength in online sales. Asian shares closed lower on trade concerns.

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U.S. Futures are Lower Following a Strong Start to the Week #China #Europe #Trade

U.S. Futures are lower following a strong start to the week. U.S. stocks rose in excess of 1% yesterday as optimism over trade fueled buying. This morning, futures are lower, but off the lows as investors digest reports from Presidents Trump meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping. There is no market-moving economic data scheduled for release today. European shares are lower, with automakers and technology shares lagging, as questions surface as to the likelihood that a trade deal can be reached. Asian shares closed mixed as Chinese markets outperformed the region.

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